Definition of the Base population and Time Span of the Projection


  1. Definition of the Base population and Time Span of the Projection



The population projections were calculated separately for six base populations:


  1. The Jewish population
  2. The Moslem population
  3. The Arab Christian population
  4. The Non-Arab Christian population
  5. The Druze population
  6. The population not classified by religion


The populations were defined on the basis of religions as recorded in the population Register. The differentiation between the Arab Christian population and the rest of the Christian population (primarily immigrants from the [former] USSR who are registered as Christians) was based on recorded nationality (Arab) and country of birth (selected Arab countries). In cases where nationality and country of birth were unknown, the distinction was determined by locality of residence (Arab locality or other), and in mixed localities by statistical region, based on the definition of the majority population.

The base populations are presented in separate tables. In addition, a number of wider populations were calculated, composed of these populations:

  1. The population of Israel composed of all six base populations.
  2. The Total Christian population composed of base populations C and D.
  3. The Extended Jewish population includes the Jewish population (group A) and immigrants who arrived in Israel in accordance with the Law of Return but who are not registered as Jews in the population Register, as well as their children (groups D and F).
    The term "Extended Jewish Population" was adopted from the scientific literature describing Jewish communities abroad, in which a substantial proportion of family members are not Jewish. This term is equivalent to "Jews and others", which appears in other publications of the Central Bureau of Statistics in order to describe this population.
  4. The Arab population composed of Moslems (group B), Arab Christians (group C) and Druze (group E)
  5. The population of Immigrants from the (former) USSR who immigrated since 1990. This population includes Jews, Non-Arab Christians and unclassified by religion (namely: partial populations from groups A,D,F)


Time Span of the Projection

For each of the base populations, assumptions were made with regard to fertility, mortality and migration, on the basis of which the projections for a time span of 25 years were calculated: from the end of 1995 (the base year) to the end of 2020, in five-year intervals. Three variants were calculated: high, medium and low, so termed according to the size of the population obtained in each variant.

The findings are presented in two time periods:

  1. Short term 1996-2005
  2. Long term 2006-2020
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