תמונת דף
תקציר
In Israel there is considerable interest in examining the chances that a marriage will ever end
in divorce. CBS publications and various studies dealing with the factors that affect divorce
provide extensive information on the prevalence of divorce, divorce rates in Israel, and the
sociological characteristics of couples that affect the chances of a marriage to end in divorce.
However, these publications have not provided an answer to the question: What are the
chances that a marriage will ever end in divorce?
This paper proposes a method for calculating the total divorce rate (TDR) in Israel, which
constitutes an estimate of the chances that a marriage will ever end in divorce, as it is has
been examined in publications in European countries. The calculation of the TDR is unique to
Israel for two reasons:
1. A substantial number of the divorcing couples in Israel are immigrants whose marriages
were performed abroad.
2. Many of the people divorcing are Israeli citizens who were married abroad but whose
divorce took place in Israel.
The results of the present study revealed that the TDR in Israel is 26%–27%, compared with
35% in European Union countries. It should be noted, however, that the rates in Europe
might be biased upward or downward (as will be shown in the paper), and that the rate
calculated for Israel in this study is slightly biased downward.
